John Oliver on Trump's beautiful border wall

Donald Trump, US presidential candidate, has put a range of price tags on the wall he wants to build on the 2,000-mile border with Mexico. It would be 1,000 miles long, made of precast concrete slabs, rising 35 to 40 feet in the air.

John Oliver, the British presenter of Last Week Tonight, a US comic news show, says Trump’s estimates of the cost range from $4bn, $6bn, $7bn, $10bn and $12bn. Estimating the cost of the wall based in part on a piece by Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post, Oliver concluded that the wall would actually cost “conservatively” $25bn.

　

War on Drugs: How to make money selling drugs

A documentary on how a street dealer can rise to drug cartel lord with relative ease. 'How to Make Money Selling Drugs' is an insider's guide to the violent but extremely US lucrative drug industry. Told from the perspective of former drug dealers, and featuring interviews with 50 Cent, Eminem, Russell Simmons, Susan Sarandon, and David Simon (creator of The Wire).

The film gives you the lessons you need to start your own drug empire while exposing the corruption behind the war on drugs.

Finfacts 2015: Disastrous War on Drugs and ignoring the evidence

Finfacts Blog 2015: What happened when Portugal decriminalised drugs — Overdose deaths fell to lowest in Europe

　

The Economist wrote in June 2015:

WITH less than 5% of the world’s population, the United States holds roughly a quarter of its prisoners: more than 2.3m people, including 1.6m in state and federal prisons and over 700,000 in local jails and immigration pens. Per head, the incarceration rate in the land of the free has risen seven-fold since the 1970s, and is now five times Britain’s, nine times Germany’s and 14 times Japan’s. At any one time, one American adult in 35 is in prison, on parole or on probation. A third of African-American men can expect to be locked up at some point, and one in nine black children has a parent behind bars. [ ]

Reducing the prison population to European levels is probably impossible, for America is still a much more violent place, even if most districts are reasonably safe. There are roughly 165,000 murderers in American state prisons and 160,000 rapists. If America were to release every single prisoner who has not been convicted of killing or raping someone, its incarceration rate would still be higher than Germany’s.

Living in Bangkok as a foreign correspondent

In this episode of My City, the FT’s Bangkok regional correspondent Michael Peel takes a closer look at the Thai capital. He meets outspoken critics of the ruling junta and those trying to help the country’s most vulnerable.

　

Big brands' cheap clothes and modern slavery

Trendy clothes are cheaper than ever. That sounds great for the people who buy them, but it's horrible for the people who make them.

　

Buying cheap clothing is easy these days, especially thanks to fast fashion labels like Joe Fresh, Zara, Forever 21, and GAP brands including Banana Republic and Old Navy, but despite commitments that slavery work conditions would be forbidden for example at contractors in places like Bangladesh, senior executives of big brands only respond with bromides for public relations purposes when there is an embarrassing story in the media.

Last April, John Oliver, the British comic, in a segment on his America show, "Last Week Tonight," examined the labour practices of fashion brands and he highlighted how unethical they really are.

The Huffington Post says that Oliver points out the problem of child labour has been publicized since the '90s, but thanks to clever and frilly ad campaigns and cover-ups, we as consumers, become blinded (and perhaps sometimes ignorant). That is, until we see something like the Rana Plaza factory collapse, which happened in recent years ago, flash all over our screens.

Oliver closes his segment with preparations of dirt-cheap lunches to be delivered to the offices of the bosses of Gap, Walmart, Joe Fresh, H&M and The Children's Place, making the point that the food had been produced by various outfits and like the clothes, the supply chain has been complicated — how could any company be responsible for their contractors' sub-contracting to more shady operators?

How would they like eating dodgy food from unknown providers?

The World in 2016 - Economist video

　

The Economist: Watch some of the biggest stories of the year ahead — before they happen. Early access to our latest film, featuring behind-the-scenes access to China's Olympic training camps, former Doctor Who star David Tennant, the biggest environmental problem you've never heard of, therapeutic virtual reality and much more.

World in 2016

More on El Niño: Irish environmental vandalism and Bandon flooding

Thanksgiving dinner, Matthew McConaughey, Adele and contemporary prejudices

Matthew McConaughey, the accomplished and versatile American actor, was the host of the Saturday Night Live comedy show yesterday (21 Nov) and Adele, the British singer, was his special guest.

This Thursday is Thanksgiving day and this is a clip from the show with a typically dysfunctional Thanksgiving dinner complete with contemporary prejudices, where Adele's “Hello” keeps intervening as the only thing everyone in the family can agree on.

　

Larry David in Curb Your Enthusiasm - Black Man In A Suit

''Yeah, it is possible for black people to have other jobs.''

Larry David, producer, writer and actor, wrote for Saturday Night Live, wrote and produced the sitcom Seinfeld and created HBO's Curb Your Enthusiasm. He currently plays Bernie Sanders, the Democratic candidate for president, on Saturday Night Live.

Video

Beyond comedy, Jane Elliott, an Iowa schoolteacher, on the day after Martin Luther King Jr. was murdered in 1968, gave her third-grade students a first-hand experience in the meaning of discrimination. She devised a daring "Blue Eyes/Brown Eyes" experiment with labels on participants as inferior or superior based solely upon the colour of their eyes and exposes them to the experience of being a minority.

　

　

Solidarity with France after night of terror in Paris

La Marseillaise has been prominent in recent days as peoples across the world have showed solidarity with France after the terrorist murders in Paris. 　

A YouTube video of the scene from the 1942 film 'Casablanca,' in which character Victor Laszlo (played by Paul Henreid) leads customers in Rick's Café bar, in singing an impromptu rendition of the French national anthem, La Marseillaise, in response to a group of Nazis who are singing the German national anthem.

La Marseillaise chantée par tout le stade de Wembley lors de France-Angleterre!

Wembley Stadium, London, prior to the start of the England-France friendly football game 17 Nov, 2015 — 4 days after 129 people were murdered in Paris in the worst terrorist attacks since the end of teh Second World War  

　

La Marseillaise (full, high quality) - Placido Domingo

　

The fund management fee racket

Charley Ellis, author of 'Winning the Loser's Game', explains to the FT’s John Authers how, almost uniquely, the fund management industry has managed to avoid competing on price.

　

Prospects for Spain’s recovery

FT deputy editor John Thornhill speaks to Luis de Guindos, Spain’s minister of economy and competitiveness, about the country’s nascent economic recovery, how its high unemployment rates can be tackled and what reforms are still needed.

　

What opportunities are there to invest in Spain and what impact will the country’s upcoming election have on investor confidence? FT hedge fund correspondent Miles Johnson speaks to Joseph Oughourlian, chief executive of Amber Capital.

　

Push to keep the UK in the EU has begun

The push to keep the UK in the EU has begun, with the launch of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign. But as Janan Ganesh explains to Lionel Barber, the editor of The Financial Times, there will never be a clear answer to the Europe question, despite a referendum.

　

Limerick chartered accountancy firm using stolen Finfacts content

Plagiarism is common on the web and when a business firm takes the complete content of articles from the Finfacts website plus images, and presents it as its own, it's a bridge too far.

MacLoughlin & Company says it "is a small Chartered Accountancy Firm which specialises in Tax, accounting and business solutions to the Limerick area."

It has 209 articles in its website's news section and apart from Finfacts content, there are articles from several foreign sources including this week a complete piece on the sale of a Picasso painting that also appears in The Guardian newspaper with the byline: "Mark Brown Arts correspondent" — MacLoughlin & Company may have contracts with the foreign sources but it has none with Finfacts.

We have no problem with fair use of content with a hyperlink to the original source but in this case the full content that involved significant research, has been republished and is presented by the firm as its own. 

We have submitted a complaint to the Chartered Accountants Regulatory Board.

Irish Politics: Scraps on tax & welfare in place of vision — 9 Oct posted on Finfacts

http://www.finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_news/articleDetail.php?Irish-Politics-Scraps-on-tax-welfare-in-place-of-vision-252

http://accountantlimerick.ie/news/?article=214

Half Ireland's population paid public income supports in 2014 — 8 Oct posted on Finfacts

http://www.finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_news/articleDetail.php?Half-Ireland-s-population-paid-public-income-supports-in-2014-250

http://accountantlimerick.ie/news/?article=215

Irish Budget 2016: Bruton wants 30% flat tax rate for immigrants — 4 Oct posted on Finfacts

http://www.finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_news/articleDetail.php?Irish-Budget-2016-Bruton-wants-30-flat-tax-rate-for-immigrants-228

http://accountantlimerick.ie/news/?article=174

Pro-life, pro-gun, and hypocrisy in America

Trevor Noah of the Daily Show proposes that anti-abortion advocates like Carly Fiorina and Jeb Bush channel their pro-life rhetoric into another vital issue: gun control.

　

Presidential hopeful Ben Carson doubles down on condemnatory remarks he made about victims of a mass shooting at an Oregon community college.

　

Jack Dorsey back as CEO of Twitter to find some magic

Twitter has named co-founder Jack Dorsey as chief executive - even though he already runs start-up Square, a payment processing firm. Hannah Kuchler and Leslie Hook discuss what the move means for the companies and how he plans to tackle both their challenges at once.

Twitter v Square: will a joint CEO work? | FT Business Notebook

　

AOL's BBG Ventures Founder Susan Lyne discusses the permanent appointment of co-founder Jack Dorsey as Twitter CEO. She speaks on "Bloomberg Markets."

　

Finfacts 2013: Twitter's backstabbing founders set for IPO and firm valued at $18bn

[The new “permanent CEO” inherits a social network with stagnating growth, an arguably overpriced stock, and vitriolic content that’s turning off some high-profile users,] says Bloomberg News

Big Game, Big Money: The trade in African wildlife

The Financial Times reports that "Magude is the first staging post in a global supply chain that ends in east Asia, where rhino horn has long been coveted for its supposed healing powers.

It is one of three Mozambican towns investigators cite as a recruiting ground for poachers behind the intensifying massacre of rhinos. Just 40 miles of straggly bush to the west is South Africa and Kruger National Park. A decade ago it was a haven: poachers killed an average of 14 rhinos a year in South Africa between 1990 and 2007. The number rocketed to 83 in 2008, and 1,215 last year, about five per cent of Africa’s total population."

Prince William, who is president of United for Wildlife, writes today in the Financial Times:

"that conservation is about people, not just animals: the 1,000 park rangers who have been killed by poachers in the past decade; the victims of the militia organisations that use the profits of poaching to fund conflict and massacres; the millions of Africans whose economic security relies on a wildlife tourism industry but whose livelihoods are being destroyed. About 80 per cent of revenue received in Africa from tourists comes from watching wild animals, which are the ones most often threatened by poaching. The criminals who plunder the world’s natural resources are trapping fellow human beings in poverty, denying future generations the right to economic and social development. It is a vicious circle."　

Fear of change will decide UK vote on EU

Forty years on from Britain’s vote to stay in the EEC in 1975, FT editor Lionel Barber and political commentator Janan Ganesh discuss what is most likely to decide the outcome of the UK referendum on EU membership.

　

A doom scenario for the EU | FT Comment

　

The drugs don't work and Fed's fumble

The Guardian reported in recent days [that until this week most of us had never heard of Daraprim, a drug that fights toxoplasmosis. But after the decision of the drug’s new owner, Turing Pharmaceuticals, to boost its cost per pill from $13.50 to a whopping $750, we’re all unlikely to forget its name or the name of Turing’s owner, 32-year-old Martin Shkreli.

Shkreli became one of the most hated men in America last week, Hillary Clinton called for reforms in the drug market, social media tore him to shreds, a punk label he bankrolled severed ties with him and even Donald Trump weighed in, calling him a “spoiled brat.”

He’s now pledged to cut the price – he hasn’t said by how much or when – but the outrage over the astronomical hike in a life-saving drug has opened the doors to a fast-moving and furious debate about the soaring costs of prescription medications in the United States – one that is long overdue.] More

After a week when world growth fears deepened, John Authers of the FT points out that stock markets are becoming more discriminating: US

　

After months of waiting for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, China stocks and hard landing worries have put a spanner in the works. 　

Japan's Yakuza: Inside the syndicate

In 2011 a Belgian photographer was allowed entry into one of Japan’s Yakuza families. Over two years, he captured the lives of those living in the underworld.

　

The Financial Times said last week that they are renowned for their strict code of conduct, full-body tattoos and occasionally operatic violence, but a split in Japan’s largest group of yakuza gangsters has confirmed their rapid decline as a force in Japanese life.

It emerged that thousands of the Yamaguchi-gumi — a group accounting for one yakuza in every two — have broken away to form their own gang based in the city of Kobe. Similar splits have led to violence in the past, but rather than showing the profitability of the yakuza gangs as before, analysts said the current divisions show the groups are struggling to survive.

It is estimated that a hundred-man yakuza operation today might clear about $1m a month after costs — enough to generate a modest living for its members, but nothing like the riches of old, helping to explain the fall in yakuza membership from 80,900 in 2009 to 53,500 at the end of 2014.

Falls in emerging market currencies Jan-Aug 2015

The falls in emerging market currencies in the period Jan-Aug 2015 range from China's renminbi at 2.4% to the Brazilian real's plunge of 30.9%.

Which countries are most exposed to China?

China's black Monday — fallout and Fed

What heralded Chinese stock collapse and return to data watch:

James Mackintosh of the FT on whether China's slowdown has a soft centre:

China crisis for commodities:

China's chronic lack of information — Jamil Anderlini, the FT’s Beijing bureau chief, says that as China’s influence over world markets grows, investors are realising the extent of its opaque and confusing style of government:

Spot the difference: Swiss Catholic bishop and ISIS

The Swissinfo news service reported on Thursday that Vitus Huonder, the Catholic bishop of Chur, the capital of the Swiss canton, Graubünden, has apologised if anyone "felt hurt" when he quoted a Bible verse calling for homosexuals to be put to death, but he says he stands by his literal reading of the Bible.

In his 50-minute address on marriage at a forum in Germany on August 2, Huonder quoted two verses from the book of Leviticus, including Leviticus 20:13: “If a man also lie with mankind, as he lieth with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination: they shall surely be put to death; their blood shall be upon them.”

In response to applause, he continued: “Both of these passages alone suffice to clarify unambiguously the church’s position on homosexuality.”

Three generations ago, the antecedents of the Germans in the audience who applauded, applied Leviticus to homosexuals in Germany.

“Both passages are in the Bible — they are the word of God and must be taken seriously — but they must be interpreted and placed in a modern context,” Huonder later told a Swiss newspaper. 

Huonder's meaningless apology and lame clarification are likely related to a criminal investigation.

Also on Thursday, The New York Times published a report, ISIS Enshrines a Theology of Rape, detailing how the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria group uses the Quran to justify sex slavery, including children, in "conquered regions of Iraq and Syria and uses the practice as a recruiting tool."

Religions do have a problem as beliefs are not based on evidence and some adherents inevitably follow the literal words that have been passed down from primitive times.

William Shakespeare's 1595 play 'The Merchant of Venice' contains the famous lines: "The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose/ An evil soul producing holy witness/ Is like a villain with a smiling cheek."

George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950), the Irish-born playwright, author and co-founder of the London School of Economics in 1895, expressed a similar sentiment:

“No man ever believes that the Bible means what it says: He is always convinced that it says what he means” — The Quintessence of G.B.S.: The Wit and Wisdom of Bernard Shaw (Creative Age Press, 1949), p. 257

Does life exist anywhere else in the universe? How did it get started?

Does life exist anywhere else in the universe? And how did it get started? Scientists are seeking the answers in the cosmos, our solar system and right here on planet Earth — The Economist.

　

China's devaluation and emerging market currencies

　

Update: On Wednesday, China's central bank fixed the "official midpoint" for the yuan down 1.6% to 6.3306 against the dollar. The midpoint is a guiding rate, from which trade can rise or fall 2% during the day.

The Wall Street Journal said that China intervened to prop up the yuan Wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter, just a day after it had let it decline sharply, underscoring the tricky balancing act now facing its central bank: how to keep the country’s currency from free-falling.

The intervention in Wednesday’s final moments of trading came after the yuan had weakened nearly 2% — the maximum allowed in mainland China — to where $1 would buy about 6.45 yuan, its lowest level against the US currency in four years. The yuan fell another 1% on Wednesday, marking the biggest two-day lowering of its rate against the dollar in more than two decades.

Aug 11, 2015:: Emerging markets in recent times have performed poorly against the developed world, with currencies at their weakest since 2003 and some as low as the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Shares are under pressure and today, China has launched the latest attack in a growing currency war by devaluing its currency by almost 2% — Robert Peston of the BBC says it is more significant than either the Greek crisis or if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

The one-day move, done in a bid to boost failing exports and maybe to bolster the case for the yuan/ renminbi to be an international reserve currency, was the biggest since 1993 and may, analysts warn, be hard to reverse.

“This shows how desperate the government is over the state of the economy,” said Fraser Howie, a China analyst and co-author of Red Capitalism, as reported by the Financial Times. “If they were trying, as the central bank said it was, to bring the exchange rate back into line with market expectations then they have failed miserably as the market is now just expecting further devaluation.”

Last March, Li Keqiang, Chinese premier, told the Financial Times: “We don’t want to see further devaluation of the Chinese currency, because we can’t rely on devaluing our own currency to boost exports.

“We don’t want to see a scenario in which major economies trip over each other to devalue their currencies,” Li continued. “That will lead to a currency war, and if China feels compelled to devalue the RMB in this process, we don’t think this will be something good for the international financial system.”

However, last weekend China reported poor trade statistics for July with a decline in particular in traditional sectors.

The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s appetite for commodities from gold to crude oil is likely to abate in the near term after the country’s surprise decision to devalue its currency, although a weaker yuan could boost steel exports.

As one of the world’s largest buyers of commodities, China’s decision to devalue the yuan Tuesday—effectively lowering the value of exports and increasing the cost of imports for domestic buyers—is likely to deepen price declines among copper, aluminum and other metals. China consumes nearly half of the world’s annual output of metals.

The Economist says Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research, a consultancy, recently wrote that a Chinese devaluation:

would export the deflationary impact to its trade competitors in the rest of the world. In addition, countries that became notably overvalued, such as the US and UK, could be weakened as cheap imports cut into margins. This is how the current bullish cycle in stock markets could end." 

The Bank for International Settlements calculates real trade-weighted indices for different currencies; as of June, China's index was 126, up from 111 a year earlier and 105 in September 2012. This shift is just a marginal retracement of that gain.

The newspaper says this move looks more like a signal than anything else. In particular, it may be a response to IMF concerns about whether to grant the yuan reserve currency status and inclusion in the special drawing right (SDR) basket. "China would very much like to get that status, partly for prestige reasons and partly to help its financial sector. So a little bit of currency flexibility might help, yet the move is not big enough to really annoy the country's Asian neighbours or the Americans."

The 1.9% devaluation of China’s renminbi is being seen by some as a shot in the currency wars, but James Mackintosh, the FT’s investment editor, disagrees.

John Authers analyses a day when some bad economic news from China made an impact across world markets.

Bill Gates Interview: Tax, Climate and Microsoft

Microsoft co-founder and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation co-chair Bill Gates talks to FT deputy editor John Thornhill about philanthropy, tax, energy and health innovation, and Microsoft’s record. Mr Gates was in London to speak at an FT 125 event.

　

Ireland: Mortgage lending slowdown continued in May; 12 month total at 1979 level

We currently have a technical problem with the login of our news content management system. The software developer blames the hosting service while the latter blames the former. This is the link to the News Main Page for access to new reports up to June 27, 2015.

Ireland: The 2015 slowdown in mortgage lending continued in May and the 12-month total of just over 30,000 for new and second hand houses compares with the level in 1979.

There were 2,461 mortgage approvals per month in the three months ending (3 month moving average) May 2015, of which 2,215 were for house purchase according to the Banking and Payments Federation.

The number of mortgage approvals rose by 20.6% compared with the three months ending May 2014 and increased by 4.6% compared with the three months ending April 2015. This is the 25 the consecutive month of year-on-year growth.

Re-mortgage/top-up continued to grow on a year-on-year basis.

Some €452m in mortgages was approved per month in the three months ending may 2015. The value of mortgage approvals rose by 26.3% year-on-year and by 2.5% when compared with the three months ending April 2015. The value of house purchase mortgage approvals grew by 22.7% year-on-year to €421m.

Conall Mac Coille, chief economist at Davy, commented:

Mortgage approvals grow by 12% in year to May 2015: New data from the Banking and Payments Federation, released this morning, suggest the slowdown in mortgage lending has continued into May. There were €447m mortgage approvals for house purchase in May, up from €391m in April. However, this means mortgage approvals are only up 12% on the year compared with 56% annual growth in 2014 and 60% in Q1 2015. There were 2,347 approvals in May, up 7.4% on the year. The average loan approval in May was €190,456, down from €195,658 in Q1.

Mortgage approvals growth slows from 60% expansion in Q1: In our recent report on the Irish housing market, we forecast that mortgage lending for house purchase would expand by 22.7% to €4.5bn in 2015, up from €3.7bn in 2014 and €2.4bn in 2013. This represented a slowdown from the 55% rise in 2014.

Year-to-date, mortgage approvals have equalled €2bn, up 36% from the €1.4bn of approvals in the same period of 2014. However, the first half of 2015 comprised two very different quarters: lending growth was exceptionally strong in Q1 with approvals up 60%; in contrast, growth has slowed markedly to 12% in Q2.

Potential borrowers may have brought forward approvals into early 2015, anticipating tighter credit conditions as the new Central Bank mortgage lending rules came into force. We estimate that 28% of mortgage loans in 2014 would have breached the limits, in excess of the 15% allowed to do so. That said, half these borrowers were first-time buyers close to a 90% Loan-to-Value (LTV), who would have faced only a slightly lower LTV ratio. It will probably be H2 2015 before the impact of the rules on actual lending becomes clear.

Overall, the sharp slowdown in mortgage approvals in Q2 2015 suggests that there are downside risks to our €4.5bn forecast for mortgage lending. However, it is not yet clear if the slowdown in Q2 is temporary after an exceptionally strong Q1. Residential property market transactions were still up 33.7% in April. That said, the full impact of the limits on high LTV and Loan-to-Income (LTI) mortgages on actual lending is not yet clear."

Global Economy: Central banks' bank warns "unthinkable" reflects broader malaise; May become new normal

We currently have a technical problem with the login of our news content management system. The software developer blames the hosting service while the latter blames the former. This is the link to the News Main Page for access to new reports up to June 27, 2015.

Global Economy: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the oldest international financial organisation, which has a membership of 60 central banks, warned at the weekend that an unprecedented period of ultra-low interest rates mask severe weaknesses in the global economy, which risks leading to the next financial crisis.

The BIS says such low rates are only the most obvious symptom of a broader malaise, despite the progress made since the crisis. "Global economic growth may now be not far from historical averages but it remains unbalanced. Debt burdens are still high, and often growing, relative to output and incomes. The economies hit by a balance sheet recession are still struggling to return to healthy expansion. In several others, financial imbalances show signs of building up, in the form of strong credit and asset price increases, despite the absence of inflationary pressures. Monetary policy has taken on far too much of the burden of boosting output. And in the meantime, productivity growth has continued to decline."

"There is something deeply troubling when the unthinkable threatens to become routine," the BIS adds in its 85th Annual Report, released Sunday. In its main economic review of the year, the BIS calls for a shift to a longer-term focus in policymaking, with the aim of restoring sustainable and balanced growth.

The report says the global economy has been growing not far away from historical average rates. Lower oil prices have provided a welcome boost, and dollar appreciation has shifted growth momentum from stronger to weaker economies. But the global expansion remains unbalanced, debt levels and financial risks are still too high, productivity growth is too low, and the room for manoeuvre in macroeconomic policy has continued to narrow.

The most visible symptom of these tensions is that, globally, interest rates have been extraordinarily low for an exceptionally long time, against any benchmark. "In particular, the fall of sovereign bond yields into negative territory has been unprecedented and has stretched the boundaries of the unthinkable."

Understanding the underlying causes of these tensions is proving exceedingly difficult. A key reason for these tensions, argue the BIS authors, has been a failure to come to grips with how financial developments interact with output and inflation in a globalised economy. For some time now, policies have proved ineffective in preventing the build-up and collapse of hugely damaging financial imbalances. These have left long-lasting scars in the economic tissue.

The report also casts light on two underappreciated aspects of the problem. By misallocating resources, financial booms can sap productivity both as booms unfold and following the crisis they leave in their wake. And the international monetary and financial system has amplified financial imbalances by transmitting exceptionally easy monetary and financial conditions to countries that did not need them.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to become the first central bank in the rich world to raise interest rates since 2008. Wall Street analysts expects the Fed to tighten monetary policy later this year, but at present the policy makers do not even know now if that will happen, while the Bank of England would be expected to follow in 2016. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are currently involved in quantitative easing programs — bond-buying that is commonly termed money printing — to boost economic activity.

The BIS report authors write:

The right response is hard to implement. The policy mix will be country- specific, but its general features are not. What is required is a triple rebalancing in national and international policy frameworks: away from illusory short-term macroeconomic fine-tuning towards medium- term strategies; away from overwhelming attention to near-term output and inflation towards a more systematic response to slower-moving financial cycles; and away from a narrow own-house-in-order doctrine to one that recognises the costly interplay of domestic-focused policies."

They add that an essential element of this rebalancing is to rely less on demand management policies and more on structural ones, so as to abandon the debt-fuelled growth model that has acted as a political and social substitute for productivity-enhancing reforms. The dividend from the oil price drop provides an opportunity that should not be missed. Monetary policy has been overburdened for far too long. It must be part of the answer but cannot be the whole answer. Otherwise, the danger is that the previously unthinkable becomes accepted as the new normal.