Thursday, May 16, 2024

The rich countries immigration boom and housing crises

According to Eurostat in 2022, legal net migration was 5.1mn people, who immigrated to the EU from non-EU countries, while 1.0mn people emigrated from the EU to destinations outside the EU.

The inflow of immigrants from non-EU countries more than doubled compared to the estimated 2.4mn in 2021. Conversely, the number of EU residents emigrating to countries outside the EU remained stable, with 1.0mn emigrants in 2021.

Note: Bulgaria, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden and Liechtenstein did not include refugees from Ukraine who benefit from temporary protection in their population and migration statistics.

1.5mn people previously residing in one EU Member State migrated to another Member State in 2022, an increase of around 7% compared with 2021.

27.3mn people (6.1%) of the 448.8mn people living in the EU on 1 January 2023 were non-EU citizens (the total of foreign-born is double-see below).

The Irish Government has said "Since February 2022 just under 107,000 people have arrived in Ireland as Beneficiaries of Temporary Protection following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2023 approximately 13,000 people applied for International Protection (asylum) in Ireland."

Illegal immigrants;— Ireland in control?

1.265mn non-EU citizens were illegally present in the EU in 2023, up 12.9% compared with 2022. 484,160 non-EU citizens were ordered to leave the territory of the EU in 2023, an increase of 3.8% compared with 2022.

Eurostat said the three EU countries that recorded the highest number of returns of non-EU citizens following an order to leave were Germany (15,445; 14.0%), France (12,170; 11.0%) and Sweden (10.330; 9.3%). Together, they accounted for almost one-third of the total number of returns in 2023 (34.3%).

In 2023, over four-fifths (91,464; 82.3%) of all returns, were returns to third countries (outside the EU), an increase of 81.4% compared with 2022.

Eurostat has said that in 2023, the vast majority (60.7%) of non-EU citizens who were refused entry into the EU were stopped at the external land borders; the share of refusals at air borders was 35.7%, while only a small proportion (3.6%) of total refusals for entry into the EU were at sea borders (see Table);

These differences in the type of border were largely influenced by the high shares of refusals recorded at external land borders in EU countries with a high number of refusals, namely Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Poland and Romania, and also in Estonia and Lithuania (all over 70.0 %).

As regards air borders, Ireland had the highest number of refusals (6,840), followed by Spain (6;440) and Germany (5,815) in 2023. The only EU countries that recorded more than 1,000 refusals at sea borders in 2023 were France (1, 345) and Italy (1,225).

Eurostat made a typo mistake with the Irish data on illegal entry in 2023. The rate was 2.8 per 1,000 not 28 per 1,000. Ireland had a low level in 2023, just behind Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Portugal.

Germany reported the largest number of non-EU citizens found to be illegally present, at 263,670. In Ireland, this figure was 1,485, an increase on the 2022 figure of 1,240.

"Relative to the population, the rate of non-EU citizens found to be illegally present in the EU in 2023 by thousand inhabitants was 2.8. The countries where the number of non-EU citizens found to be illegally present per thousand inhabitants was the highest are Slovenia (28.9), Croatia (17.6), Hungary (16.6), and Cyprus (11.0). Ireland (0.3), Sweden (0.2), Finland (0.2), Denmark (0.2), and Portugal (0,2) are the countries with a lower number of non-EU citizens found to be illegally present per thousand inhabitants."

Statista: Foreign-born population of the European Union in 2021 and 2022, by country

The total was 55,314,000 and the Top 10 of the 27 EU countries, was 48,465,000.

In the European Union Ireland at 22% has one of the highest rates of foreign-born populations.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM)

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is a United Nations-related organization working in the field of migration. Data for 2020 was 281mnn international migrants in the world, which equates to 3.6% of the global population.

The IOM said Europe and Asia each hosted around 87mn and 86mn international migrants, respectively – comprising 61% of the global international migrant stock.

The level of 87mn came from a growth of 16% since 2015. A little over half of these (44mn) were born in Europe, but were living elsewhere in the region; IOM says this number has increased since 2015, rising from 38mn.

In 2020, the population of non-European migrants in Europe reached over 40mn.

The data show that in 1990, there were roughly equal numbers of Europeans living outside Europe as non-Europeans living in Europe. "However, unlike the growth in migration to Europe, the number of Europeans living outside Europe mostly declined over the last 30 years and only returned to 1990 levels in recent years. In 2020, around 19mn Europeans were residing outside the continent and were based primarily in Asia and Northern America . As shown in the figure below, there was also some gradual increase in the number of European migrants in Asia and Oceania from 2010 to 2020.

Europe's population in 2022 was 744mn with the European Union with a population of 448mn and the Russian Dictatorship with about 140mn (Asian Russia is about 6.5% of the total.)

Migration has risen more than three-fold in 50 years.


'The Foreign-born population by country of birth, 1 January 2023' chart above shows that Ireland had a 22% foreign-born percentage and Sweden is at 20%.

In Ireland, the number of immigrants, or those entering Ireland in the year to April 2023, was estimated to be 141,600, while the number of emigrants, or those leaving the State, over the same period was estimated at 64,000. These combined flows gave positive net migration (more people arriving than leaving), of 77,600 in the year to April 2023, compared with 51,700 in the previous year.

From 2017 to 2023in each year net migration exceeded the natural data.

"The justice department estimated in 2022 that there could be 17,000 undocumented people - including 3,000 children, in Ireland.

Integration or exclusion? Assimilation of non-Irish nationals into the Irish labour market

"Using data based on the national Labour Force Survey, we examine the extent to which immigrants coming to Ireland over a twenty-year period from 1998 to 2019 have assimilated into the labour market based on occupational level, education, employment sector, union membership and rates of unemployment. Overall, immigrants enjoyed conditions in the labour market in 1998 at least as good, if not better than, nationals and appeared to be relatively well assimilated. In contrast, immigrants by 2019 were at a disadvantage compared to nationals, indicating reduced levels of assimilation.

A plausible explanation for these trends is the shift away from immigrants mainly from the UK and EU15 in 1998 who had similar cultural (and linguistic) and racial/ethnic characteristics, and a move towards immigrants originating mainly from Eastern European countries and the rest of the world in 2019. However, our results show that immigrants from Eastern European countries were the least assimilated group despite their European origin and cultural compatibility with native Irish."

Migration data from the 1970s.

At the end of 2023, the Labour Force Survey was at 2,706,400, including part-timers and foreign staff in Ireland.

The foreign-born was at 527,000. The total breakdown by category is in thousands:

Construction total was 133.8 (including Irish and foreign workers) /27.5 foreign employment; Wholesale/Retail 282/62; Transport 93/17; Accommodation and food 127.7/55.4; Information and communications 104.4/64.5/ Professional, scientific et 148.4 /38; Admin 78/28.5; Education 209/26; Human health and social 291.5/73.8; Industry 245/75.5; Service 168.6/41.8; Finance; insurance 113/22.7; Other 103/24.7.

Employment in construction was 282,000 in the second quarter of 2007 and the number of houses completed in 2007 was 78,000 (there was also a National Road Building Project in progress).

According to the statistics office, the residential sector accounted for nearly 60% of construction output in 2007. 

There were 32,695 new dwelling completions in the whole of 2023, an increase of 10.0% from 2022.

Last year in the UK, net legal migration hit a record 606,000 for the first time.

In October 2022, Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the conservative Moderate Party, was elected as Sweden's prime minister with the support — for the first time — of the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats.

In a decade Sweden has gone from having one of the lowest levels of fatal shootings in Europe to one of the highest in just a decade.

According to a recent study, 41% of people who immigrated to Sweden between 1980 and 2024 do not identify as part of Swedish society.

Last September the PM in a televised address blamed “irresponsible immigration policy and failed integration.”

“I cannot over-emphasise the seriousness of the situation,” he added. “Sweden has never seen anything like it before. No other country in Europe is seeing anything like it.”

John Burn-Murdoch, the Financial Times' data guru last month (APRIL 26 2024) wrote that:

"a striking pattern emerges when you look at where these different impacts are clustered: almost everything looks better in Anglophone countries. Immigrants and their offspring in the UK, US and so on tend to be more skilled, have better jobs and often out-earn the native-born, while those in continental Europe fare worse. In terms of the fiscal impact, immigrants pay more in than they get out in the US, UK, Australia and Ireland, but are net recipients in Belgium, France, Sweden and the Netherlands."

Education policy expert Sam Freedman points out that, in Britain, second-generation children from the poorest Bangladeshi communities achieve better results at school than the average white British pupil, while Black Britons are more likely to attend university than their white counterparts. In the US, the children of foreign-born parents are now more likely to attend college than those with native-born parents. In France, by contrast, students of North African origin remain much less likely to progress in education."

Nightmare scenario: The unhoused find shelter in makeshift tent encampments in Toronto. The city is at the epicentre of Canada’s housing crisis, where scarce supply, coupled with a population boom have led to massive price increases. — Bloomberg

Just like Dublin!!

“It has been proven over many many years that there’s a positive to Australia from a high migration intake,” said Stephen Halmarick, chief economist at the nation’s biggest lender Commonwealth Bank of Australia.


1) Larry McCarthy, Strategy, Evaluation & Reporting Branch of the Irish Revenue, said in 2023, "Foreign-owned multinationals had over 850,000 employments in 2021 on Revenue records. Revenue data show 490,600 employees in the Manufacturing, Administrative & Support, Information & Communication and Financial Services sectors, which are likely to be the traditional FDI sector (with export-oriented activities and IDA support).

The remaining 360,400, of which the largest share was 174,800 in Wholesale & Retail Trade, are most likely foreign-owned multinationals operating in Ireland to serve the domestic market."

Reasons to stay in Europe; Employment of immigrants; Refugees in Europe; Migration to and from the EU; Seeking asylum in Europe; Irregular border crossings; Returns; Short stay visas; The Atlas on Migration European statistics on migration and asylum.

Foreign-born residents per country: As noted above the EU rate would be 12.4% if internal migrants to other Member Countries were included.

The Statista data above show that 10 countries from the 27 EU countries account for almost 88% of the total account for foreign and internal migration.

3) The rich world or Advanced Economies, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), comprises 41 countries but my classification is 36 (not including Andorra; Hong Kong; Macao; Puerto Rico and San Marino).

US $ current prices in April 2024:

Luxembourg 131.38 thousand (anomaly); Ireland 106.06 thousand (anomaly);

The duchy employs over 226,000 cross-border commuters or 47% of the working population. The adjusted rate is 100.70.

The Irish level in dollars is about in line with Spain at $34,000 per person. There are adjustments for multinational companies that become Irish for tax purposes; Intellectual Property product relocations and Aircraft Leasing.

In 2023 there is fake Contract Manufacturing that is in the National Accounts at a value of about $130,000,000,000.

Irish Government may have nixed a key remedy for 'Leprechaun economics'

Switzerland 105.67 thousand; Norway 94.66 thousand; Singapore 88.45 thousand; United States 85.37 thousand; Iceland 84.59 thousand; Denmark 68.9 thousand; Australia 66.59 thousand; Netherlands 63.70 thousand; Austria 59.23 thousand; Sweden 58.53 thousand; Belgium 55.54 thousand; Finland 55.13 thousand; Canada 54.87 thousand; Germany 54.29 thousand; Israel 53.37 thousand; United Kingdom 51.07; thousand; New Zealand 48.53 thousand; France 47.36 thousand; Malta 41.74.

Italy 39.58 thousand; Cyprus 37.15 thousand; Taiwan 34.43 thousand; 34.16 thousand; Korea, (Republic of); Spain 34.05 thousand; Slovenia 34.03 thousand; Japan 33.14 thousand; Estonia 31.85 thousand. 

Czech Republic 29.8 thousand; Portugal 28.97 thousand; Lithuania 28.41 thousand; Slovak Republic 25.93 thousand; Latvia 24.19 thousand; Greece 23.97 thousand; Hungary 23.32 thousand; Poland 23.01 thousand; Croatia 22.97 thousand.

Housing in EU +UK

"Decades in the making, Europe’s housing crisis is being felt from the Netherlands to Portugal, Greece to Germany, and in Britain. Prices and rents have soared, availability and affordability have plunged and housing has become a political issue.

Between 2010 and 2022, property prices across the 27-member bloc surged by 47%, according to a 2023 Eurostat report. In some countries they almost trebled: Estonia recorded a 192% rise. Only in two member states, Italy and Cyprus, did they decline.

Rents, meanwhile, rose by an average 18% over the same period, increasing in every single EU member state except Greece (where they have risen by 37% since 2018). Some of the biggest hikes were in the Baltic state of Lithuania, up 144%, and Ireland, up 84%." The Guardian